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I have been repeatedly critical of the possibility of a settlement between Google, the publishers, and the Authors' Guild, but a recent exchange with a friend has given me pause, and forced consideration of an alternative way of analyzing aspects of this issue.
The perspective ultimately derives from the recent, significant decision of the Harvard University Faculty to support open access publishing, establishing a written opt-out requirement.
In my recent exchange, my friend counseled to take a long view. I have been attempting to peer into one dark room, and he suggests another, in a different part of the house.
Support universities and the libraries for open access scholarship, find and define fights on looming horizons, and worry less about the thicket of alternative outcomes for the content that may well find its way to greater access in Google Book Search.
To reach that zen point, consider the options in the battle over rights: settlement, litigation, and legislative action.
The immediate alternative to a negotiated settlement between Google and the publishers is litigation, and while that litigation might ultimately run in favor of Google (and universities and libraries, which are intrinsically allied with Google on many of the ultimate goals, notably in a more healthy determination of fair use), it might not. If Google were to lose a litigation, the goals of universities would be set back -- painfully set back -- for an indeterminate period.
If neither settlement nor litigation proffered relief, intrusive legislative action would loom. As with litigation, legislative action might well clarify both cleanly and fairly the difficult issues confronting copyright. Particularly in the near term, they might not. The painful experience of orphan works suggests a legislative morass. With many diverse IP holders involved, with mixed aims and unsure of their ultimate interests, a decisive Congressional embrace of an innovative exploitation of content is not the mostly likely outcome. On the flip side, the rights issue might be worth embracing with a strong, principled stance. If legislation went grossly awry for fair use and access, the contradictions of the current copyright regime might as a consequence be fatally exposed; a victory for IP owners might wind up being tenuous and short-lived. Overall, this is difficult territory to predict.
If there were a settlement, the greatest risk to access of the covered books is the establishment of a de facto monopoly, with high barriers to entry. These could be thrown up in a variety of ways. Second guessing derivative outcomes is quite difficult, and if a settlement offered attractive terms and conditions (from the perspective of the publishers, authors, and the search engines, not necessarily the participating libraries), it is conceivable that Microsoft/Yahoo might be able to form an attractive competitive alternative for publishers and authors -- if that combine were to decide to enter the digitization game, in Google's wake. However, it is not at all clear to me that Microsoft sees this as both desirable and obtainable, and it may not be structurally in a position to pursue it. I feel this is one of the greatest dangers of the conclusion of conflict through negotiated agreement.
The perspective gained from weighing the costs and outcomes of settlement, litigation, and legislative action can take one into various paths. Everyone must acknowledge the bravura of Google for launching a bold game of digital poker, and seriously evaluate the conundrums facing content owners seated unexpectedly at an unfamiliar cloth-covered table, after decades of playing backgammon for far lower stakes.
If one then approaches this from the perspective of transformation -- that the vast majority of content will be under open access licenses in 100 years -- we should encourage a familiarity with 5-card stud. The goals for the libraries in the game, if they choose to compromise and embrace a settlement outcome, are clear: get the best goddamn deal possible, the largest pot for the greatest number of your colleagues, most of whom are not at the table with you, whilst knowing that you will be playing against these poker partners in the future.
We're watching.
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